Sei Tungsten Carbide uye Cobalt Poda Yakakwira Mumutengo Gore rino?

I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Export Halt + Global New Energy Rush

1. DRC Inobvisa 80% yeGlobal Cobalt Supply

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) inopa78% yecobalt yenyika. MunaFebruary 2025, zvakangoerekana zvazivisa a4 - mwedzi cobalt mbishi zvinhu kutumira kunze kumiswa, kutema cobalt yepasi rose ne26% (yakaenzana ne30,000 - tani pamwedzi kushomeka). Vanyungudutsa vepasi rose vakatarisana ne "dambudziko rezvinhu," nemitengo yekushanda ichidzika kusvika 58%. Madiki - kusvika - epakati mabhizinesi akatovhara, achisunda cobalt hupfumitengo yakakwira ne¥3,500/ton mumwedzi mumwe chete- kusvetuka kukuru kubvira 2024.

2. New Energy uye 3C Zvigadzirwa Zvinokonzera Cobalt Scramble, Draining Stocks

Kutengeswa kwemotokari itsva yepasi rose kwakagadzirirwa kukwira 25% muna 2025. Zvichakadaro,ternary lithium mabhatiri (eEVs) uye cobalt - acid mabhatiri (ye3C zvishandiso)vari kuwedzera kudiwa kwecobalt, iyo yakawedzera kupfuura matani zana nemakumi mashanu ezviuru. Kamwe yakakwana kwemazuva makumi mana neshanu, cobalt hupfu masheya ikozvinomazuva 28 chete- chinopihwa - chinoda kusaenzana kuri kukwirisa mitengo.

3. Hoarding uye Kureba - Term Contracts Gadzira Mutengo Spiral

Kurambidzwa kunze kwenyika kweDRC kwakonzera kutya. Vatengesi vakaunganidza pamusoro pe30% yezvinhu, vachityaira mitengo yenzvimbo kusvika 12%. Kuti udzivise kuvhundutsa mune ramangwana, vagadziri vemabhatiriakasaina zvibvumirano zvenguva refu 3 mwedzi kutanga, kugadzira mitengo yenguva refu 8% yakakwirira kupfuura nzvimbo. Izvi zvakagadzira kutenderera:kukwira kwemutengo → kuwedzera kuhodha → kunyange mitengo yakakwira.

II. Tungsten Carbide Surge: Tight Global Mines + Booming Emerging Sectors

1. Quota Kucheka uye Kuvhara Kuremara Tungsten Supply

Inopfuura 60% ye tungsten yenyika inobva kune imwechete yakakosha dunhu. Muna 2025, yekutanga-kutenderera migodhi quotas yakachekwa ne6.45%, uye 30% yemigodhi midiki yakavharwa nekuda kwekuomesera kwemitemo yezvakatipoteredza. Mutengo weblack tungsten concentrate (raw material)hit ¥172,000/ton(rekodhi yakakwirira). Pakazosvika June, tungsten carbide poda mitengo yakakwira kusvika¥364/kg.

2. Photovoltaics, Defense, uye Drones Drive Explosive Demand

Tungsten carbide haisisiri yekucheka maturusi chete!Photovoltaic tungsten waya (ine> 14% yepasi rose kupinda)ari kusimukira, nemafemu anotungamira “mitsetse yekugadzira bhiriyoni – yemamita” ichimhanya isingamiri. Dziviriro (nyukireya fusion) uye maindasitiri e drone ari kubvutawo tungsten carbide, nezvikamu zvitatu izvi.inoverengera 40% yezvinodiwa zvitsva- kubvisa misika kwehusiku.

3. Export Controls Spark a Global Stockpiling Spree

Huru tungsten - nyika dzinoendesa kunze kwenyika dzakaunza "imwe - mvumo - pa - kurongeka" mitemo. Kutya kushomeka, vatengi mhiri kwemakungwaakatanga kuchengeta 6 months kare, kusunda mitengo yepasi rose 13% pamusoro pemazinga epamba. MuQ1 2025, tungsten carbide mitengo yekunze yakakwira 45%, uye maodha ekunze akagadzira 35% yekutengesa - kudiwa kwekunze kwakawedzera mamwe mafuta kumoto.

III. Mitengo Icharamba Ichikwira Here? Makambani Anofanira Kupindura Sei?

1. Pfupi - Nguva: High Volatility sezvo maGaps Achiramba

• Cobalt Powder: Kurambidzwa kunze kwenyika kweDRC kunogara kusvika Q3 2025, zvichigadzira 32,000 - matani epasi rose gap. Mitengo ichachinja pakati¥260–¥280/kg.
• Tungsten Carbide Poda: Iine 15,000 - tani mbishi gap uye peak photovoltaic kudiwa, mitengo inogona kuyedza.¥380/kg.

2. Yakareba - Nguva: Mujaho Pakati Pekutama uye Innovation

• Cobalt: Mafemu ari kushandura kugadzirwa kuenda kuIndonesia (ine vatambi vepamusoro vari kutovaka zvidyarwa). Pakazosvika 2026, hutsva hutsva hunogona kudzoreredza kumanikidza.
• Tungsten Carbide: Chenjererasilicon carbide yekucheka maturusi(yatove kutsiva 20% ye tungsten carbide). Makambani anofanirwa kutenderera kune zvigadzirwa zvepamusoro (semuenzaniso, nano - giredhi tungsten carbide, iyo inowedzera purofiti ne50%).

3. Matanho ekupona: Chengetedza Supply + Upgrade Tech

• Pfupi - Nguva: Kiya zvinhu zvine makondirakiti enguva refu kana kushandisa remangwana kuvharira njodzi dzemitengo.
• Nguva refu: Isai mari muR & D yezvigadzirwa zvepamusoro-soro (semuenzaniso, yakakwira - kuchena cobalt yemasemiconductors, tungsten yenyukireya fusion). Shandisa tekinoroji kurova zvinodhura.

Uku kukwira kwemutengo kunofambiswa nemitemo yedunhu, kudiwa kwepasi rose, nemitambo yemari. Kumakambani epasirese, kubudirira kunoreva kunzwisisa "nei zvekushandisa zvakapfava" uye "ndiani ari kutenga zvimwe" - ipapo kuchengetedza cheni dzekugovera kana kusimudzira hunyanzvi. Ipapo chete ndipo pavanogona kubudirira mudutu rekushandisa iri.